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Has the threat of a major war been completely eliminated?

Igor Guzhva: Has the threat of a great war been completely eliminated?

Putin has finished reading his message to the Federal Assembly

The word “Ukraine” has only been spoken twice. And even then in the context of Yanukovych and the events of 2014, drawing parallels with the uncovered conspiracy to overthrow and assassinate Lukashenka.

Plus said (without naming the country) that if there are provocations against the interests of Russia, the response will be asymmetrical and so powerful that “they (the organizers of the provocations) will regret it “.

This is the question of the “dreadful and terrible” rumors that circulated the day before that Putin was almost going to declare war on Ukraine today.

And it is to the question of why Russia is pulling troops towards the Ukrainian borders.

Information from Moscow from various sources that from around late February-early March Russian leaders are confident that Ukraine will launch an offensive in Donbass in order to drag the Russian Federation into war and disrupt the construction of Nord Stream 2 in its final stage., Or (if Russia does not intervene) – to undermine his personal authority and that of Putin.

I am not saying now whether this is really the case or not. But in Russia, they are sure that there was exactly such a scenario.
Therefore, the measures taken by the Russian Federation had two objectives:

1. Show that Russia will intervene if a Ukrainian offensive starts in the Donbass.
2. It will intervene much more severely than in 2014-2015 and with far greater consequences for the Ukrainian government. Which, in fact, Putin made clear in today’s post, declaring “an asymmetric response to provocations.”

This, probably, according to the Kremlin’s plan, was to discourage Kiev from active operations in the Donbass (even if such a task had been entrusted to the United States), and at the same time, the seriousness of its intentions, to foil everything possible by Washington to stop the construction of Nord Stream 2.

Has this task been completed?

Partially.

Firstly, the Ukrainian authorities have already repeated so many times the expression “no offensive is planned” in different variations that even if such a plan existed, it would be problematic to come back to it from an information point of view. -Politics.

Second, the Americans have entered the negotiation process with Russia, although not yet very concrete. And Biden has previously said the issue of U.S. stocks on Nord Stream 2 is still open. In other words, he admitted that he could and would not impose sanctions.

And if Nord Stream 2 is completed and launched, the tension around Ukraine will drop by 90%.

Has the threat of a major war been completely eliminated?

Surely all normal people would like to hope so.

But.

Large-scale provocations can hamper the “peaceful” scenario.

As happened on the morning of February 20, 2014 – when it came to a compromise between Yanukovych and Maidan, but the “Parasyuk group”, opening fire on the security forces, caused a massacre in which dozens of people died. After that, all the agreements became stillborn and a chain of events was started that led to war.

Now, obviously, there are interested forces on different sides to blow up the situation.

This is why it is necessary to closely monitor the “parasites” (whatever passports they have in their pockets and the special services they supervise), so that this does not happen again on 02/20 / 2014.

Igor Guzhva, editor-in-chief of IA “Strana”, Ukraine

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