Although very fluid, we can follow the latest results from electronic prediction markets and survey data.
He currently has a 66% chance of a Biden win, which is up from a week ago to 62.9% and also higher than four weeks ago, though, as of Usually, one has to be aware of how little capital is needed to manipulate the illiquid PredictIt market (something any prominent Democratic financier with deep pockets would be well aware of in seeking to manipulate public sentiment in the cheapest way possible). A Trump victory has a roughly 39% chance according to this data, which is slightly up from 37.1% a week ago. National polls – compiled by Real Clear Politics – suggest a similar tilt in the race, with Biden having a 51.3% to 43.5% lead against Trump.
By digging into state polls in competitive states, Biden currently leads in every state on the battlefield except Ohio, Arizona, and Texas. This would give him a comfortable victory of the Electoral College (CE) 346-192 …
… even though the RCP’s average polls over the main battlefield states (FL, PA, MI, WI, NC, AZ), are now just +3.1 in favor of Biden and down 5% to weeks ago, Arizona passing just to Trump in the past 24 hours.
That said, the polls are flawed, as 2016 demonstrated – indeed, if we apply the failed 2016 poll as did Bank of America last week, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Iowa and Maine would turn around. For this exercise, we used the latest average data from the RCP surveys as of October 31:
These figures are then adjusted by applying the same error rates as those observed in the 2016 ballot, and the results are presented in the table below:
Owen Shroyer takes the battle tank for a ride to celebrate Halloween, spread Biden Halloween humor and spread the truth.
Remarkably, if the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016, Trump would win with 279 of 538 electoral votes, while Biden would get 259.
Still, the margin of victory would be 0.5 percentage point in Wisconsin (for Biden) and Georgia (for Trump), which would trigger an automatic recount and delay results. More, the margin in Pennsylvania and Florida would be less than 1.0%, which would likely lead to a bitter post-election night struggle and contested results.
In short, no matter what happens on November 3rd, expect some big recounts and delays before you have a clear winner.
Putting that together, Bloomberg put it best: “All of this means that a Trump victory on Tuesday would represent a historically staggering failure of public opinion polls, even eclipsing the failure of 2016. While the president’s chances of being reelected is not zero, pollsters say it is far. “
“If Donald Trump wins anything in 2020 that amounts to a decisive victory for a known electoral college on election night, it would have repercussions on the research profession that would reverberate forever – and rightly so, ” said Jay Leve, managing director of SurveyUSA, a survey company.
As Bloomberg notes, Level and other pollsters say the election results range from a resounding Biden victory to a close contest that could be based on recounts and court rulings either candidate could. to win. They do not consider a clear, swift, and decisive Trump victory among the possibilities.
“It would be amazing,” said Leve.
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