When elections don’t go exactly as planned, everyone is quick to point fingers at pollsters who are wrong. And no one takes more heat than FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver.
During a hard-hitting episode of FiveThirtyEight’s now-daily political podcast on Wednesday, Silver forcefully dismissed anyone accusing him or his website of mishandling the 2020 election by predicting that Joe Biden was 90 % chance of winning what ended up being a nail-biter of a race.
“I want to ask about the polls because I think I would be practically beheaded on Twitter if I didn’t get down to it,” podcast moderator Galen Druke said about 20 minutes after the group began to chat, raising significant poll errors in states like Florida and Wisconsin. “The pitchforks are already coming for pollsters and tipsters,” Druke said, asking his boss to respond to the “rage” that has been directed at him over the past 24 hours.
“If they come after FiveThirtyEight, then the answer is fuck you, we did a great job!” Silver responded, explaining that the only reason former Vice President Joe Biden was seen as such a heavy favorite in the site’s closely watched model was because “he could resist a 2016-style poll error or a little bigger “while winning the election. On the eve of this election, FiveThirtyEight gave Donald Trump a 28.6% chance of winning, far more than other poll aggregators.
Silver also pointed out that the only state where Biden was leading in final poll averages and losing at this point was Florida, with North Carolina likely to follow. And Silver said he found it “a little worrisome” that there were now major hiccups in polls “in the same direction” not only in 2016 and 2020 but also midway through 2014 ( but not in 2018).
Appearing on ABC This week with George Stephanopoulos on the Sunday before polling day, Silver made similar arguments, noting that Biden would likely win the race even if there was a poll error as large as 2016. Meanwhile, he added, if Trump ended up winning Silver said he believes it will return to the tipping point state of Pennsylvania, which is still in play Wednesday night.
“People have misconceptions about the accuracy of the polls, and the fact that Biden has that big lead explained why he was a pretty big favorite, not because the polls are perfect,” he concluded on the podcast .
In response to Silver’s provocative defense of the FiveThirtyEight model, Druke promised that the site and podcast would take a closer look at why some polls were so bogus this time around. “But we’re not going to do it late at night after we haven’t slept,” he says.
#Nate #Silver #Tells #ThirtyEight #Critics #Fuck #Great #Job