No other US industry has been hit harder by the virus pandemic than travel and tourism.
The World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC) released a report this week, protecting “a staggering 9.2 million jobs could be lost in the U.S. travel and tourism industry in 2020 if barriers to travel in the world remain in place. ”
The WTTC’s economic modeling is the latest reminder of the deep economic scars that could materialize as a result of the virus pandemic that continues to hit the economy.
According to the report, 7.2 million jobs in the United States have already been affected. If restrictions on international travel are not lifted and other stimulus measures are not observed, 9.2 million jobs, or more than half of all jobs in the sector, could be lost.
The WTTC’s 2019 Economic Impact Report details how travel and tourism accounted for at least $ 1.84 trillion to the U.S. economy and was responsible for 10.7% of all jobs in the United States.
WTTC research indicates that between 10.8 million and 13.8 million jobs in travel and tourism remain at serious risk.
While the resumption of international travel would boost travel and tourism – at the moment, that doesn’t appear to be the case, as increased social distancing restrictions are reimposed in Europe and the United States.
In a separate report, Goldman’s economics team is using real-time data to determine that the U.S. economy is tipping over due to the resurgence of the virus pandemic.
Goldman said that OpenTable’s real-time data through early November “shows a much larger drop in restaurant activity indoors in states with higher case growth, suggesting that Virus-sensitive industries could show the first signs of a growing viral attack.
According to Goldman, although eating indoors only accounts for a small portion of overall consumer spending, it is a particularly useful indicator as its high susceptibility to viruses means it will likely be one of the first sectors to show an impact of the virus. In other words, “OpenTable data could thus provide an early indication of growing risks to broader categories of service spending, especially given its timeliness.
Since restaurants are major contributors to travel and tourism, their declining activity could be a good indicator of a waning recovery in travel and tourism, but a double-dip recession could be ahead.
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