A former Clinton administration official said President Trump still has a 20% chance of winning re-election, although the media has already called for Biden to run.
Graham Allison served under Clinton as Assistant Secretary of Defense for Policy and Plans from 1993 to 1994.
In an article titled “ Donald Trump’s Stealth Road to Victory, ” Allison breaks with the legacy media consensus that Trump’s legal challenge is completely futile by giving the president a one in five chance of winning.
“Without disagreeing with conventional wisdom about the final tally when all legal votes are counted, I think the current consensus misses the fact that Trump has a viable stealth second route to victory,” Allison wrote, adding that the fight will go until at least January 6, date on which “lists of members of the electoral college are opened in Washington”.
After that, Allison predicts the decision on the outcome will go all the way to the Supreme Court, where the Republicans have a 5-4 advantage.
Noting that a contested election structurally favors Republicans, Allison asserts, “I project a 20% chance that a contested election result will lead to a victory for President Trump.”
“The words of the 12th Amendment and the historic precedent provide a believable, stealthy and winding road that could lead to Trump’s victory and a second term. Or as the saying goes: the opera is not over until the fat lady has sung, ”he concludes.
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