Have you noticed that poll results seem to be everywhere this election season?
The mainstream media consistently tout polls that show Joe Biden a huge national lead and strong leads in most critical states.
But independent pollsters like Trafalgar, Rasmussen, and others regularly publish polls that show President Trump does very well in swing states.
In fact, if the Trafalgar polls end up being as accurate as they were in 2016, Trump will win the election.
But if you listen to the experts in the mainstream media, it’s nearly impossible.
In fact, earlier today in The Most Important News, I published a mainstream forecast that predicts that Joe Biden has a 95% chance of winning the election. Someone is really wrong and we’ll find out who it is soon.
In this article, I will share some pretty surprising numbers with you. Just like in 2016, the polls the mainstream media rely on give the impression that Trump is definitely going to lose. But Robert Cahaly of the Trafalgar Group says those polls are just as flawed as they were four years ago.
So why are these traditional polls so bogus?
Well, Cahaly insists that there is a “hidden Trump vote” that mainstream polls just ignore …
“What we’ve noticed is that these polls mostly miss Trump’s hidden vote. There is a clear feeling among conservatives and people who are for the president that they are not interested in sharing their views easily, ”he added. “These people are more reluctant to participate in surveys. So if you don’t make up for that, you won’t get honest answers.
The mainstream media thought the idea of a “Trump hidden vote” was crazy in 2016, but Cahaly was vindicated when Trump won.
Will we see the same thing happen again here in 2020?
Let’s look at some of the numbers.
President Trump desperately needs to win Florida if he is to win in November, and for now, the latest RealClearPolitics poll average places him just 0.4% ahead in the state.
So it seems to involve a very, very close race.
But the latest Trafalgar Group survey pushed Trump up 2.3%, and the latest Rasmussen survey pushed Trump up 4 points.
You might dismiss these differences as just a “coincidence,” but we see the same thing happening when we look at the numbers state by state.
In North Carolina, according to the latest RCP poll average, Biden is up 0.7%, but Rasmussen has Trump ahead by 1% and Trafalgar has Trump by 3%.
In Wisconsin, the latest RCP poll average pushed Biden up 5.5%, so you’d be tempted to think Biden has a lock on that key switch state.
But the latest Trafalgar poll actually has a 1.3% increase in Trump.
In Michigan, the latest RCP poll average pushed Biden up 9.0%, making Biden look like absolutely nothing to worry about.
But according to the latest Trafalgar poll, Trump rose 0.6% in the state.
It’s an absolutely huge difference, and someone is far away.
Finally, let’s talk about Pennsylvania. Anyone who wins Pennsylvania will almost certainly win the election, and so this state is vitally important.
Latest RCP poll average pushed Biden up 3.8%, but Trafalgar Group just published a poll which shows Trump as head of state for the first time …
Donald Trump 48.4%
Joe Biden 47.6%
Jo Jorgensen 2.2%
Someone Else 0.7%
When asked about the Trafalgar and Rasmussen polls, many mainstream media called them “crazy,” but Trafalgar and Rasmussen were right in 2016.
In fact, following the election, it was reported that “Trafalgar’s polls were either the most accurate (or tied for the most accurate) of all other polls in the 2016 election.”
That’s not to say the same will happen this time around, but having a solid track record should definitely mean something.
So what are they doing that is different from others? Well, on the one hand, they don’t ask people dozens of unnecessary questions. According to Cahaly, the key is to go design surveys with “Joe Sixpack” in mind…
“Well, we’re kind of a disruptor to the polling industry in that we believe the way the industry is run is very outdated and not in line with modern times, modern values and the kind of modern politics to start with and the age of, you know, mom and dad sitting around the poler waiting for the phone to ring. And this is a political inquiry. Oh, well, we’ve got to take some time and respond to that. I mean, that’s not the reality. You know, the phone rings at 6:30 p.m. You have. You cook dinner, you do the dishes, you put the children to bed. No one has time to stop what they’re doing and take a 25, 30, 40 question survey. You don’t get from ordinary people. You get people who are on the ideological extreme of being way too liberal, way too conservative, or worse yet, bored people. We want to interview ordinary people. I grew up in politics in South Carolina. And Lee Atwater, what he was saying to all of us is, don’t worry about what political insiders say. You want to know what’s inside Joe Sixpack’s head. And that’s my goal, to understand what ordinary people think. “
Without a doubt, I think this election is much closer than what the mainstream media has us believe.
And since it will take so long to count all the mail-in votes, we may not have a winner until long after November 3.
The period of uncertainty we potentially face will not be good for our country, and when a winner is finally declared there will be tens of millions of people on the losing side who will be extremely angry.
America has never been so deeply divided in my life, and a fiercely contested presidential election could easily spark widespread civil unrest across the country.
So let’s hope for the best, but let’s also prepare for what could be a very, very difficult chapter in our history.
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