Does this title surprise you?
In this article, I am not predicting the possible outcome of the presidential election.
Rather, I’m going to discuss what will likely happen based on which votes are counted first.
Usually, Americans gather around their television sets on election night to watch the votes roll in, and the mainstream media will declare the winner at the end of the night.
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But it will not be so this time. More than 52 million Americans have already voted by mail in this election, and that number will continue to increase with each passing day.
It will take longer to count all of those mail-in ballots, which will cause significant delays in getting final election results for many states.
According to a survey by Pew Research, Trump supporters are more than twice as likely to vote in person on polling day as Biden supporters, and Biden supporters are more than twice as likely to vote by mail as Trump supporters …
Trump supporters are more than twice as likely as Biden supporters to say they plan to vote in person on polling day (50% vs. 20%). In contrast, 51% of Biden supporters say they plan to vote by mail or mail (or have voted that way before). A quarter of Trump supporters (25%) say they plan to vote by mail or by mail.
This will be so important to keep this in mind as you watch election coverage on the evening of November 3, as which votes are counted first will determine which candidate initially leads in each state.
According to Ballotpedia, 13 states allow early counting of postal ballots.
- New Jersey
- North Carolina
And there are 6 other states that “either do not specify when the count can begin, or leave the decision to the discretion of local officials” …
In those 19 states, the mail-in ballots and the first in-person ballots will be the first votes counted, and those votes will favor Biden.
Yes, there’s a good chance Biden could take big leads in red states like Oklahoma and Utah, but in the end he won’t win any of those states.
In contrast, 31 states do not allow early counting of postal ballots. In most of these states, the votes cast on election day will be the bulk of the early results, and the initial vote tally should therefore favor President Trump in these cases.
This group of states includes the critical states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. Like I said before, whoever wins Pennsylvania is likely to win the election, so we’ll want to pay close attention to what’s going on there.
According to FiveThirtyEight, about two million ballots have already been returned to Pennsylvania, and officials won’t even start counting them until 7 a.m. on election day …
Take the example of Pennsylvania, arguably the most important swing state in this election, because it is currently the most likely “swing state” in our predictions, or the state that could determine the winner. of the Electoral College. About 2 million postal ballots have already been returned so far, almost a third of the total number of votes cast in the state four years ago. But since the state can’t start processing mail-in ballots until 7 a.m. on Election Day, it could be some time before we get full results in Pennsylvania. State officials said it could take until Friday to count most ballots.
I’m quite skeptical of Pennsylvania’s ability to count all the votes by Friday, as it took them two and a half weeks to count all the mail-in ballots for the Democratic primary earlier this year …
In that election, the more rural and Republican-leaning parts of the state reported a sizable majority of their results on election night, as their votes were cast disproportionately on election day. In the more populous and Democratic-leaning parts of the state, it took about two and a half weeks to account for most of the vote, due to the huge influx of mail-in ballots. As a result, on election night, at 3 a.m. Eastern Time, only 46 percent of the final Democratic presidential primary vote was reported, compared to 71 percent of the GOP total, based on the data. from ABC News.
I am convinced that Pennsylvania spends a lot more resources on the general election than it did on the primaries, but there will also be a lot more ballots to count for the general election.
Either way, President Trump is set to take huge leads in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and other states where the counting of the mail-in ballots will take some time.
As I mentioned in a previous article, there are several steps to follow for each mail-in ballot, and counting them is a very tedious process.
I think it was very foolish for so many states to push postal voting so strongly for this election, and I think it’s going to cause huge problems.
And it’s also very important to remember that states won’t even have all of the postal ballots in their possession on November 3. Ballots will continue to be accepted after election day in many states, and these different deadlines will continue to be the subject of legal battles for the weeks to come.
In many cases, the Supreme Court of the United States will intervene. In fact, they just ruled that Pennsylvania can accept mail-in ballots up to three days after the election and North Carolina can accept mail-in ballots up to nine days after the election. .
In a very, very close race, we could potentially see the outcome decided by ballots that aren’t even received by North Carolina officials until November 12.
The longer things drag on, the better for Biden.
But on election night, President Trump is expected to have a lead in the majority of states.
Needless to say, this will likely cause a huge stir on the left, and they desperately hope that the counting of the ballots in the mail ends up flipping the election back to Biden.
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